Which U.S. wheat counties are most exposed to drought right now?
The U.S. Drought Exposure Monitor tracks roughly 45 million planted wheat acres against federal crop-insurance coverage and the U.S. Drought Monitor's weekly severity map. The wheat view covers both winter-wheat country in the Southern and Central Plains and spring-wheat country in the Northern Plains — refreshed every Thursday.
Where U.S. wheat is grown
Wheat is the third-largest U.S. row crop by planted area, but it is really two crops in one number. Winter wheat — planted in the fall and harvested early the next summer — is grown predominantly in the Southern and Central Plains: Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado, and Nebraska. Spring wheat — planted in spring and harvested late summer — is concentrated further north, in North Dakota, Montana, Minnesota, and South Dakota. Together they cover roughly 45 million planted acres each year. Washington and the Pacific Northwest contribute soft white wheat and other classes.
That split matters for drought analysis. Winter wheat in the Southern Plains carries the highest single-region drought risk in the U.S. wheat complex — a Kansas–Oklahoma–Texas dry-down in late winter or spring is the classic "wheat-in-drought" headline. Spring-wheat exposure tracks Northern Plains summer drought instead. The Monitor surfaces both on the same wheat tab, but the regional patterns rarely line up at the same time.
How drought exposure works for wheat
Federal crop-insurance participation for wheat is more variable than for corn or soybeans. In the major winter-wheat states — Kansas in particular — coverage rates can rival corn's, generally running around 80% of planted acres. Spring-wheat states tend to show similar participation. Coverage thins in states where wheat is a smaller secondary crop or where producers grow it on uninsured or self-insured ground.
One caveat about the wheat view: USDA NASS does not publish durum wheat at the county level under its standard series, so durum is excluded. Durum represents roughly 3% of U.S. wheat, concentrated in North Dakota and Montana. Most of the rest of the wheat picture — hard red winter, hard red spring, soft red winter, soft white, and other classes — is present.
The exposure score uses the same three inputs the rest of the tool does: planted acres from USDA NASS, insured acres from USDA RMA's Summary of Business, and current drought severity from the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Data sources for wheat drought exposure
Every input that drives the wheat exposure score is public, free, and refreshed on a known cadence:
| Source | What it provides | Refresh |
|---|---|---|
| USDA NASS | Planted wheat acres by county (winter, spring, and other classes; durum excluded) | Annual + intra-year revisions |
| USDA RMA Summary of Business | Federally insured wheat acres by county and coverage type | Monthly mid-year + crop-year close |
| U.S. Drought Monitor | Current drought severity (D0–D4) by county | Weekly, Thursdays |
| NOAA CPC Seasonal Drought Outlook | 90-day forward outlook — development, persistence, improvement, removal | Monthly |
Frequently asked questions
Which U.S. states grow the most wheat?
Kansas leads the country in winter-wheat acreage, followed by Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado, and Nebraska. The leading spring-wheat states are North Dakota, Montana, Minnesota, and South Dakota. Washington and the Pacific Northwest are also significant wheat producers, with both soft white wheat and a mix of other classes.
What is the typical federal crop insurance coverage rate for wheat?
Coverage varies more for wheat than for corn or soybeans. In Kansas and the major winter-wheat Plains states, federal crop-insurance participation often runs around 80% of planted acres. Coverage tends to thin in states where wheat is a secondary crop, in counties with high premiums relative to historical losses, and where producers use alternative coverage products.
Why is winter wheat especially drought-exposed in the U.S. Plains?
Winter wheat is planted in the Southern and Central Plains, where dryland farming is the rule and irrigation is the exception. A dry fall, dry winter, and dry spring stack on top of each other before harvest. When the U.S. Drought Monitor flags D2 or higher severity in Kansas, Oklahoma, or Texas wheat country, large blocks of acreage move into the high-exposure list quickly.
Does the wheat view include durum wheat?
No. USDA NASS does not publish planted durum acres at the county level under its standard series, so durum is excluded from the wheat view. Durum represents roughly 3% of U.S. wheat, concentrated in North Dakota and Montana. The remainder of the wheat picture — winter wheat, hard red spring, soft red winter, soft white, and other classes — is included.