Which U.S. counties have the most crop acreage in drought?
The U.S. Drought Exposure Monitor is an interactive 3D county map — each county rises by its planted acres and is colored by current drought severity — that answers this every week. Pick a crop, and it reads USDA's planted acres against current severity from the U.S. Drought Monitor and NOAA's 90-day outlook to rank every U.S. county by how much planted acreage is under active drought. Federal crop-insurance data rounds out each county as honest context. Free to use, public-data only.
What this tool answers
The Monitor combines county-level planted acres, current U.S. Drought Monitor severity, and NOAA's 90-day Seasonal Drought Outlook into a single county-by-county view, with federal crop-insurance data as per-county context. It answers questions like:
- Which U.S. counties have the most planted acreage under active drought right now, for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, and sorghum?
- Where is drought-weighted acreage — planted acres times severity — concentrated across the country?
- Which counties' growing seasons are forecast to worsen under NOAA's 90-day Seasonal Drought Outlook?
- How does this week's drought map compare to the same week last year?
How exposure is measured
The headline view rests on two pieces of hard data, with no insurance assumptions:
- Planted acres. USDA NASS publishes planted acres by county and crop. For the current year, the tool walks a three-tier waterfall — county-level actuals when available, otherwise state-level scaled by the county's three-year share, otherwise the most recent prior year — so every county has a defensible acreage number.
- Drought severity. The U.S. Drought Monitor publishes a five-band severity map every Thursday morning. The tool reads each county's worst current band (D0 through D4) and multiplies it by planted acres to produce drought-weighted acres — the acreage in drought's path, scaled by how deep that drought runs.
The map and watch list rank counties from highest to lowest drought-weighted acres, so the counties carrying the most planted acreage under the deepest drought rise to the top. A forecast view nudges current severity by NOAA's 90-day Seasonal Drought Outlook to show where conditions are likely to head; a year-over-year view shows where severity has climbed or eased since the same week last year.
Federal crop insurance is reported alongside each county as context — not folded into the ranking. The tool shows a county's footprint across federal crop-insurance programs, keeping crop-insurance acres, grazing and forage acres, and rangeland separate, since a single field can carry more than one policy and those acres should not be added together.
Watching drought over time
The Monitor also keeps a monthly record of U.S. Drought Monitor severity back to 2000. A play button animates the map through the full history, so persistent, multi-year droughts — like the 2012 event below — read at a glance.
Drought exposure by crop
The Monitor tracks five major U.S. row crops. Each crop has its own geography, its own planted footprint, and its own drought-stress window — so the watch list for one rarely lines up with the watch list for another.
Data sources
Every input is public, freely available, and refreshed on a known cadence:
| Source | What it provides | Refresh |
|---|---|---|
| USDA NASS | Planted acres by county and crop (corn, soy, wheat, cotton, sorghum) | Annual + intra-year revisions |
| USDA RMA Summary of Business | Federally insured acres by county and program — crop insurance, grazing and forage, and rangeland, shown separately as per-county context | Monthly mid-year + crop-year close |
| U.S. Drought Monitor | Current drought severity (D0–D4) by county | Weekly, Thursdays |
| NOAA CPC Seasonal Drought Outlook | 90-day forward outlook — development, persistence, improvement, removal | Monthly |
Methodology in plain English
The headline question is simple: where is drought hitting the most planted acreage? The Monitor answers it with two public numbers per county — planted acres and current drought severity — multiplied into a single drought-weighted-acres figure. The map and watch list rank on that figure, so the counties carrying the most crop acreage under the deepest drought come to the top. No insurance assumptions enter the ranking.
Insurance enters only as per-county context, never the ranking — and it is shown carefully, because a crop's grain insurance does not capture the separate programs that insure the same ground against drought. Annual Forage and Pasture, Rangeland and Forage policies cover acres a grain policy does not. Winter wheat grazed by cattle, for instance, is often insured as forage rather than grain. In graze-heavy regions like the Texas High Plains, a county can hold little grain insurance while being heavily covered against drought through forage policies, so a grain-only figure understates how much of that acreage is actually insured.
The Monitor shows a county's footprint across all federal crop-insurance programs — crop-insurance acres, grazing and forage acres, and rangeland — reported separately and never summed, since a single field can carry more than one policy. The full methodology is laid out on the methodology page.
Frequently asked questions
How does the watch list rank counties?
The watch list ranks counties by drought-weighted planted acres — each county's planted acreage multiplied by its current U.S. Drought Monitor severity. Counties with both a lot of planted acreage and deep drought rise to the top. The ranking uses hard data only: USDA NASS planted acres and U.S. Drought Monitor severity, with no insurance assumptions.
How does the Monitor use federal crop-insurance data?
Insurance appears only as per-county context, not as part of the drought ranking. The Monitor shows a county's footprint across federal crop-insurance programs — crop-insurance acres, grazing and forage acres, and rangeland — reported separately and never summed, since a field can carry more than one policy. One caveat matters: much grazing-capable small-grain acreage is insured as forage rather than grain, so a grain-only view understates how much of that ground is actually insured against drought.
How often is the data refreshed?
Drought severity and the seasonal outlook refresh every Thursday afternoon, a few hours after the U.S. Drought Monitor publishes. RMA Summary of Business updates monthly mid-year and again at the close of the crop year. NASS planted-acre estimates promote from March prospective to June acreage to final, automatically, as USDA publishes.
Is the U.S. Drought Exposure Monitor free?
Yes. The tool is free to use with no signup. The full methodology is laid out on the methodology page.
Which crops are covered?
The major federally insured row crops: corn, soybeans, wheat (excluding durum, which NASS does not publish at the county level under that series), cotton, and sorghum. These crops cover the bulk of insured U.S. acres.
Can I use the underlying data for my own analysis?
Yes. Every input is public USDA, NOAA, or U.S. Drought Monitor data, and the project links to each source. Attribution to the original federal sources is appreciated.